The Obama administration took office viewing Asia’s evolutions differently to the Bush era. And Obama’s prioritising of high profile engagement with Beijing on an array of global governance issues has diverted strategic focus from New Delhi.
In an address on US policy in Asia in November 2009, Obama failed to mention India even in passing. The omission was all the more glaring as Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was due in Washington for a state visit a little over a week later.
But China’s treatment of Obama during his state visit to Beijing in November 2009 and at the climate summit in Copenhagen a month later has seen the administration revert to Bush-era strategic balancing vis-à-vis China.
The Bush administration’s publicly denied but widely understood goal was to build India’s strategic potential as a check against the rise of Chinese power.
Is this also the goal of the Obama administration?
Undersecretary of state for political affairs, William J. Burns, has affirmed in a recent address that the Obama administration is ‘deeply committed to supporting India’s rise.’ Burns has also called for India’s greater diplomatic and military involvement in East Asia and for enhanced US-Indian defence cooperation; ideas that are bound to irritate leaders in Beijing.
A month later, Michele Flournoy, undersecretary of defence for policy, echoed these themes by proclaiming that ‘India’s success is very much in America’s national interest.’
This heightened focus on India increases the likelihood that President Obama’s trip to India will establish new milestones in bilateral relations.
But any attempt to strengthen this relationship will not be problem-free.
The first of these is Afghanistan. Obama may need to shore up his domestic political base by accelerating the drawdown of US military forces in Afghanistan. This would have obvious implications on Pakistan, and could in turn have serious consequences for US-India relations.
A second concern is the tightening US sanctions against Iran. With New Delhi feeling that the Obama administration has upset its interests in Afghanistan, India is enhancing its relations with Iran due to Indian dependence on Iranian oil resources. The close India-Iran relationship has long troubled Washington. For its part, the Indian government has complained that US sanctions that penalise companies helping the Iranian petroleum sector adversely affect Indian enterprises seeking to develop oil and natural gas fields in Iran.
A few days after the sanctions were signed into law by President Obama, Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao explained that ties with Tehran are a ‘fundamental component’ of Indian foreign policy and noted there has been a ‘convergence of views’ on important issues. And referring to the new US sanctions, she stressed that sanctions can have direct and adverse impacts on Indian companies and India’s energy security.
PJ Crowley, the US State Department spokesman, reacted to Rao’s address by stating that ‘business as usual’ with Iran by America’s friends and partners was no longer acceptable.
Afghanistan and Iran will test the nascent US-India strategic entente just as President Obama arrives in New Delhi. What should be an opportunity to articulate the next chapter in the bilateral partnership could well spell out its limits.
David J. Karl is president of the Asia Strategy Initiative, a consultancy based in Los Angeles. He served as project director of the Task Force on Enhancing India-US Cooperation in the Global Innovation Economy, jointly sponsored by the Pacific Council on International Policy and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry.