The leaders of PD (established by SBY) have said several times that they are trying to forge a coalition that will secure around 70 per cent of the seats in parliament. That means the PD coalition will most likely include another party with the capacity to win a significant number of seats. That should be Golkar. PKS (the militant Islamic party) and PKB (led by Gus Dur) have said publicly that they have strong interest in being part of SBY’s coalition and support SBY’s incumbency. These coalition of four political parties will likely to control around 60 per centof seats in the parliament.
Knowing that this coalition if succesfully forged will be unbeatable in the presidential election, it is very likely that PPP (the Islamic party from the New Order era) and PAN (led by Amien Rais) will also join in. Of course that depends on how lucrative the offer made by Prabowo for PPP and PAN to help him secure his candidacy. If PPP and PAN decided not to support the incumbent president, it is likely that a significant number of their voters would still support SBY.
Such a large coalition supporting the government is necessary in Indonesia because there is no such thing as an official coalition. Coalition agreements are not binding contracts which can prevent members defecting. Today’s coalition partner might be tomorrow’s opposition member. Having many coalition partners is necessary to secure coalition majority support in the parliament even when one or two members defect mid stream.
Meanwhile, PDI-P (Megawati’s party), Gerindra (established by Prabowo), and Hanura (formed by Wiranto) are only inches away from becoming coalition partners. Despite almost certain defeat, these three parties are not going to join SBY. The reasons are deeply personal. Mega, Prabowo, and Wiranto all have personal issues that are unresolved with SBY.
With these two blocs competing in the presidential election, SBY’s victory is almost certain. SBY’s coalition will become a dominant majority in the parliament. SBY, who is hoping to avoid another government confronting a hostile parliament, might get his wish if he can create an unofficial and yet enforceable agreement with his coalition partners that would allow him to discipline those who failed to support him. With a dominant majority coalition, the question of course is whether the parliament will become a rubber stamp of the newly elected president.
Two other possibilities are still open although they are less likely. The first is the emergence of a third bloc led by Gerindra’s Prabowo. In the last several days Prabowo has been meeting with mid-size political parties (PAN and PPP), and he is planning to meet with PKS. Certainly these mid-size political parties would like to hear what Prabowo has to offer. In addition, by openning the possibility that they would join other political blocs, PKS, PPP, and PAN hope that they will strengthen their bargaining position vis-a-vis PD. The emergence of this bloc, along with another bloc led by PDI-P, will not deny SBY’s victory in the presidential election but they will certainly create headache for him afterwards.
Second is the re-emergence of a possible PDIP-Golkar coalition. Although the chance grows slimmer with time, nothing is certain. If these two political parties combined forces, they might create a formidable challlenge for SBY. To be competitive this coalition would have to attract support from other political parties particularly the mid size ones, solidify their internal party commitment, multiply their, financial sources, and court support from a mass based organization such as Nahdlatul Ulama and Muhammadiyah.
The coming presidential election will be between David and Goliath (SBY). But, this is no bible story. If David fights alone and comes out without a sling, Goliath will certainly have a landslide.
Sunny Tanuwidjaja is a researcher in the Department of Politics and International Relation at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta. He is a Ph D candidate in political science at Northern Illinois University. See other CSIS contributions to EAF.