In April 2024 Thai Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin proposed a Schengen-like visa program with some of his ASEAN counterparts. Srettha’s plan envisages a single or common visa area for the mainland ASEAN states of Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam. If the plan follows the EU model, short stay visitors would, with a single application, have access to the six countries for up to 90 days. 

The initiative seeks to boost tourist numbers beyond their pre-COVID levels. In 2023, tourist arrivals to ASEAN countries sat at roughly 70 per cent of their pre-COVID level with Thailand leading at just north of 28 million, still far shy of its 2019 peak of nearly 40 million. The primary focus of Srettha’s plan is economic growth and tourist spending, which in 2022 totalled nearly US$250 billion — far short of the more than US$350 billion seen in 2019. 

In terms of tourist arrivals in 2023, Thailand hosted 28 million, Malaysia 20 million, Cambodia 5.5 million, Laos 3.4 million, Myanmar 1.2 million — and Vietnam over 12 million, a growth of over 300 per cent from the previous year. The plan seeks to capitalise on existing tourist hotspots while connecting increasingly popular destinations like Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam. This is part of the Srettha government’s goal of leveraging Thailand’s spot as a ‘hub’ in mainland Southeast Asia via air traffic connectivity. 

The government has set a wildly ambitious goal of boosting tourism to 80 million visitors by 2027. Where these tourists will land and depart is anyone’s guess, as Thailand’s airports were over capacity at 40 million arrivals and the expansion of Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport is still experiencing delays. But bold targets are the name of the game for Srettha, the salesman prime minister. 

While the common visa program is an interesting idea in principle, there are a number of potential sticking points. ASEAN states have three primary concerns regarding tourism and immigration more broadly — visa overstays, illegal work and security. 

Big tourist destinations such as Thailand and Malaysia have significant experience dealing with tourists overstaying their visas and doing visa runs to neighbouring countries in order to continually extend their stays. Tourists engaging in employment or running businesses without the appropriate visa has also been a recurring issue, from English tutoring to the increase in foreign visitors operating businesses. 

More importantly, the biggest hurdle will be addressing national security concerns stemming from fears of terrorism, international smuggling and becoming a haven for foreign criminals. These fears must be balanced against the possible economic benefits. 

Having a common visa area will demand that the six ASEAN states develop common entry rules for third country nationals, harmonise visa free entry for third countries and begin sharing data. The last of these is perhaps the most daunting. To harmonise standards is difficult enough, but the six members will also have to share massive amounts of data for background and security checks. This is likely to lead to sticking points as member states have differing visa issuance protocols for nationals of countries with enhanced security concerns. 

Member states will be wary of issuing visas across zones where lax procedures may cause crime to spread across states. For example, Thailand is struggling with visa issuance abuse by Chinese nationals, many of whom moved to Thailand after the crackdown on gambling in Cambodia in 2024. So-called ‘Chinese grey money’ has led to criminal allegations of gambling, cybercrime, drug smuggling and violent crime.   

Another hurdle will be finding a common language — likely English — for six countries with vastly different languages to process paperwork. Hidden within these two black boxes are the sticky problems of data security, privacy and bureaucratic capacity. Countries such as Thailand have problematic relationships with data security already, while Myanmar’s current capabilities are completely unknown.

The biggest hurdle will be ASEAN itself. While ASEAN is good at conflict resolution between member states, it is considered by some as a ‘talk shop’ thin on delivering deep regulatory and economic integration. Implementing a visa would require longevity of practice regardless of political winds or governmental change. Without this, the knock-on security effects of poor or lax implementation could be severe.

ASEAN multilateralism falls to national bureaucracies for implementation, monitoring and oversight, creating a chicken-and-egg problem. For this program to work in the long term, it demands deep buy-in and endurance. Once rules are finally agreed, they must be applied religiously so that security protocols are not discarded in the face of favouritism, lax oversight or corruption.

The plan, while seemingly modest on its surface, is broad in application. Other ASEAN formulas for initiatives such as ASEAN–X would stand a better chance of successful implementation as they are based on likeminded and capable states working together on a bilateral basis with additional governments entering later. 

ASEAN does not have the greatest track record when it comes to implementing deep integrative initiatives with long-term vision, and this a big plan that demands a lot of planning, buy in and foresight. ASEAN states would need to step up their engagement and expectations of each other to deal with security and sovereignty concerns — a goal that currently does not credibly fall under ASEAN’s umbrella.

William J Jones is Assistant Professor and Chair of the Social Science Division at Mahidol University International College.