Dr Li’s subtle analysis is elaborated in this year’s China Update, the annual in-depth review of developments in the Chinese economy just launched at the ANU and scheduled for launch in Washington at Brookings in November. We shall digest more of the contributions to this impressive study over the coming weeks. He identifies two teams in the Party that vie for policy influence in China’s one-party political system – a Populist Coalition (the Red Team) led by President Hu Jintao and an Elitist Coalition (the Blue Team). Could the Red and the Blue Teams emerge as contestants in a two or multiple party system? It is possible. In ten or fifteen years, it is unlikely that the Communist Party will dominate as it does today. But a change like this will be complex and, if it is made, must happen without threatening the country’s stability. And while that choice is one that China, and China alone, can make, it is a choice that can be either complicated or assisted by the way in which China’s key partners, among them Australia, respond to developments along the way.
In Brief
An important international consequence of the Stern Hu affair has been to shine a more intense spotlight on the political system and the way in which it interacts with the market and the judicial system in China. This week’s lead from Dr Cheng Li, of the Brookings Institution, examines the political contest between two major coalitions (or factions) within the Chinese Communist Party and the prospects for political change in China. He argues that political tensions are on the rise and China’s political system does not seem capable of finding sound, safe and sustainable ways to handle these challenges. These tensions have their origins in a number of important factors, but three stand out. One is the uncertainty of sustaining economic growth in the face of the challenge of adjustment in the global financial crisis. Another is the sensitivity to the sharp rise in external economic dependence, on energy and resources, crystallised in the brouhaha around the political anxieties that the hike in iron ore and other commodity prices have generated. A third, of course, is the elevation of ethnic tensions, most recently in Urumqi. Despite, perhaps because of, these pressures, there is no sign of a multi-party (or a more transparent and representative) political system emerging in the near future. The Chinese Communist Party will continue to have strict control over the army, media, legal and judicial system. Although there are these continuities, several important factors are now influencing change in the conduct of Chinese politics.