Many Bangladeshis wonder if their government is capable of tackling the violence in a coordinated manner to ensure public safety and security. There are two major triggers for unrest: the trial for war crimes of some of the BJI’s leaders, and conflict between political parties over the mechanism of the next general election.
Although insignificant in terms of representation in the parliament the BJI has often been a kingmaker in Bangladeshi elections. Its strength as a political party stems from its support base, which is cultivated by the BJI’s significant investments in the financial, educational and social sectors. The BJI is currently in an 18-party electoral alliance led by Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP).
The Jamaat-e-Islami took a well-documented stance against the creation of Bangladesh, and many of its members allegedly collaborated with Pakistani forces in committing genocide, rape and arson during the 1971 conflict. The genocide in former East Pakistan (which later became Bangladesh) is one of the worst in Asia’s history: according to official figures at least 3 million ethnic Bengalis were killed and 10 million became refugees in India.
The traumatic experience of genocide in the name of religion made many Bangladeshis drift away from religion-based politics. As a result, in the early 1970s, especially during the first two years of Bangladesh’s independence, Bangladeshi nationalism overshadowed Islamic fervor. All religious political organizations were banned.
Those families who were victimized by the events of 1971 were successful in their requests for a war crimes trial in 2010, but the BJI is now demanding that the trial be closed and their leaders released. It believes the trial is politically motivated, and fears extinction if its leadership is successfully convicted. The BJI appears to have adopted a coordinated strategy to intensify pressure on the government to abort the trial. Meanwhile, the country’s youth have launched mass protests demanding capital punishment of those convicted of genocide and war crimes.
The situation has given rise to several worrying trends. First, there has been a significant decline in law and order, which will result in greater insecurity for Bangladeshis — activists are attacking public transport, police stations, and government offices. Second, the violence is not limited to the capital Dhaka, and country-wide blockades and general strikes create an atmosphere of general uncertainty, which directly affects the economy. Third, the political issues are deliberately being interpreted with a communal undertone, which is affecting religious minorities. Minorities have been attacked a number of times in the last three months by the extremist mob, and provocative radical propaganda materials are spilling onto the online social media — including a speech in Urdu by Al-Qaeda’s Pakistani media head.
Many believe that the BJI and others are creating chaos in order to stop the trial of war crimes. In the background of this turbulence some religiously sensitive issues are being exploited. A new Islamist group, Hefajat-e-Islam, is demanding an anti-blasphemy law, and while the Bangladesh government has rejected their demands the new group’s emergence is a significant development.
As the strikes and violence continues Bangladeshi political parties are locked in a dispute over whether a caretaker government should take over before elections. The BNP and its allies have threatened to boycott the elections without the caretaker policy in place and are enforcing another series of general strikes to mount pressure on the government. As per the roadmap unveiled by the Election Commission, the next parliamentary elections will be held sometime between 26 October 2013 and 24 January 2014.
The Awami League-led government abolished the caretaker system in 2011, and the BNP believes that a free, fair and credible election is not possible if they are administered by the incumbent government.
While the political parties argue over form, the masses suffer in substance — the uncertainty and violence is causing livelihoods to be lost and inflation is increasing thanks to disruption in the supply chain of commodities. The country’s economic activities have been seriously affected. According to the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry, a day lost to a strike costs the economy US$205 million a day. Twenty-five days of productivity were lost to general strikes in the first three months of 2013 alone, which is equal to nearly one-third of the total number of working days. The stock market has fallen to new lows mostly due to the lack of investor confidence caused by political unrest, and the political scenario is only becoming direr.
Key players in Bangladesh politics have made democracy fragile. To avoid a further escalation of violence and social and economic impact on the country a dialogue between the political parties is necessary.
Iftekharul Bashar is an Associate Research Fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
This article was first published here, in Counter Terrorist Trends and Analysis.