Currently, the Japan Air Self-Defence Force (JASDF) has a fleet of 350 combat aircraft, which incorporates 260 fighter aircraft. But the Japanese Ministry of Defence (MoD) was forced to scrap 12 out of 18 damaged F-2s after the March 11 tsunami, which hit the JASDF Matsushima Air Base in Miyagi prefecture. Additionally, the existing fleet of F-4EJ Phantom II and F-15J Eagles are of older generation and also need to be replaced.

Apart from these domestic obligations, there are pressing external concerns, too. Chinese and Russian aircraft are often detected flying over Japan’s air space illegally and JASDF has taken immediate action to either warn or intercept them. According to the MoD, intercepts of Chinese planes almost tripled last year, and Russia also recently sent two bombers into Japanese airspace. Taking into account the contestation over remote islands such as the Kuril islands (between Japan and Russia) and the Senkaku islands (contested by China), as well as the rapid modernisation of its neighbours’ fighter aircraft, the time is now ripe for Japan to augment its fighter fleet.

With Russia developing a fifth-generation fighter and China developing its own new fifth-generation multi-purpose fighter, Japan also has plans for a next-generation aircraft. The Society of Japanese Aerospace Companies (SJAC) has proposed producing a next-generation air-superiority fighter until 2028, and to have 100–120 planes replace existing F-15Js. This would then be superseded by a Japanese fighter design, to begin development by 2017. Japan hopes to fly a Mitsubishi ATD-X by 2014–2016, and the SJAC’s idea is that its successor could enter production around 2028, as the foreign-designed F-X fighter line closes down.

The MoD has identified four selection criteria for the next fighter jets: the performance of the aircraft and its weapons, maintenance costs, the level of participation of domestic firms, and after-sales support. Regarding performance criteria, the MoD is focusing on stealth, kinematic performance and information-processing capabilities.

If stealth is desired, then Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter conventional takeoff and landing variant is considered the second best after F-22 Raptors. The radar signature of the F-35 is far ahead of its competitors, and Lockheed Martin has also offered to exchange the F-35’s transfer of final assembly to Japanese firms. But they are hugely expensive — each jet may cost over US$100 million, and it may not even be available until 2016.

If a good price is desired, Boeing’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet is less expensive, with each plane set at approximately US$60 million and it is readily available. Japan’s partner, the US Navy, also uses F-18s, but its technology is considered to be outdated.

The Eurofighter Typhoon, built by an EU consortium, provides opportunities both diplomatically and technologically for Japan, the UK and the rest of Europe to work together. The Eurofighter Typhoon has very limited ground attack capabilities that would satisfy Japan’s ‘defence only’ criteria. And in an interview with the Financial Times, Japanese Defence Minister Yasuo Ichikawa said Japan’s alliance with the US would not be a ‘major criterion’ in deciding between the Eurofighter Typhoon, Boeing’s F/A-18 Super Hornet and Lockheed’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter.

Meanwhile, all three bidders have pledged to allow fighters to be built under licence in Japan. The question is how much production they will allow.

There will be a lot of meetings and deliberations both inside and outside Japan’s Ministry of Defence until the final decision is taken by December 2011. It is speculated that Japan will plump for its traditional partner, namely the US. But Ichikawa has insisted that the Japanese selection process would be ‘rigorous and fair’, and waved aside suggestions that spurning the US could cause strains with Washington. In the Financial Times, Kunihiko Miyake, a security expert at the Canon Global Institute, said that the technical and tactical issues should be given more importance than procurement diplomacy.

Meanwhile, India has opted for a technologically better Eurofighter Typhoon along with France’s Dassault Rafale jets — and this did not result in a dip in Indo-US relations. It remains to be seen what Japan opts for and its possible ramifications. Buying a European fighter may have a ‘big political impact’ on Japan-US relations. Japan should take into account its air power requirements and capabilities rather than procurement diplomacy. Japan must weigh up its final decision carefully.

Jithin S. George is a Research Associate at the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi, India. An earlier version of this article was first published on the website of the Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi, India.