The reality is the Democratic Party of Japan’s new prime minister and foreign minister, Koichiro Gemba, both elected for the first time in 1993, have had much experience as politicians. Their performance since the DPJ took office in September 2009 suggests they are both capable and intelligent operators.
Prime Minister Noda starts his tenure after two prime ministers have damaged the party’s political relationships with the bureaucracy, business executives and many interest group leaders, resulting in a paralysis of effective policy making. The DPJ now has to negotiate with the opposition parties, after losing Upper House elections, to make any legislative progress. A ‘humble attitude’ at this juncture could be a huge political asset. Certainly the Japanese public, and Japanese political culture, will likely welcome a bit of political humility.
Coping with the strong Yen is a pressing political concern. Noda has decided to financially support corporate operations at home and launch a new economic strategy council including the top figures from the business federation and the union, and the president of Bank of Japan as members. His next task is to gain international understanding on the Japanese currency situation.
Raising taxation to fund reconstruction after the East Japan Earthquake is another priority. The majority of Japanese voters are starting to accept this reality and will support purpose-oriented taxation reform, but not yet an increase of consumption tax as such.
The need for a re-vamp of energy policy — reducing the dependence on nuclear power and increasing the load borne by renewable energy — is another issue at the front of the policy agenda and up for intense debate. Although a law requiring the energy companies to buy all renewable energy at the government-mandated price has been approved, a nation-wide consensus on the nuclear issue is yet to be reached. Not to construct new nuclear plants and to gradually abolish reactors that have reached their use-by date is what Noda declared in his first press remarks and this approach is matched in the public mood in Japan according to the polls, where immediate suspension of all reactors is a minority view.
The key to a successful foreign and security policy is to take ‘quiet steps’, including reinforcing relations with Washington and capitals in the Asia Pacific. In the current atmosphere of Japanese politics, voters will not welcome new, or drastic shifts in foreign policy strategy, and will electorally punish diplomatic incompetence. The Noda administration is unlikely increase the defence budget or change the interpretation of the Constitution. While it might dispatch Self Defence Forces (SDF) for peacekeeping operations in South Sudan, the focus will be on the regional stability dimension of the Japan-US relationship at an operational level. Nor are there signs of initiatives with China. The idea of an East Asian Community floated by former Prime Minister Hatoyama, which was vague and innocent of regional real-politik has been canceled. The US base relocation issue in Okinawa is unlikely prove the political liability it has in the recent past, so long as Washington’s frustration is kept private.
On the other hand, there could be a shift on military technology transfer. The new defense minister, Yasuo Ichikawa, has already revealed support for review of Japan’s ‘Three Principles on Arms Export’, and today most bureaucrats and specialists support the review process, but he’s in no hurry to push this forward. Despite minor party opposition, public opinion could accept review of these principles which would pave the way for joint development of weapons systems. The final decision might be taken within a year.
There are difficulties ahead on trade policy. The government must confront its commitment to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) before the Honolulu APEC summit meeting. There are divided opinions in the new cabinet. The public appears unwilling to digest deep liberalisation of Japanese markets. The East Japan Earthquake has intensified worries about the strength of Japanese agriculture and industry. This sentiment militates against change, and the split on the issue within cabinet will make the Noda administration shy of taking any firm decisions on trade. The media and commentators will mark Noda down if he vascillates. Yet if Noda himself shows commitment on liberalisation and pushes on the issue, especially in the context of the new national growth strategy, he could well bring the nation behind him.
Japan, for a long time, has had a strong desire for a leader with resolve and responsibility. The test of Noda’ most unexpected premiership will be not whether his policy approach makes a lot of sense but whether his humble style in fact allows him to deliver leadership the country still craves.
Ryo Sahashi is Associate Professor of International Politics, Kanagawa University and Resident Fellow, The German Marshall Fund of the United States.