True, some of the world’s most important emitters — the United States, Canada and Australia, among them — have yet to commit to either an emissions target or a carbon price. And the going, especially in the United States, is politically tough. US initiative will be important as a circuit breaker in a host of countries, including Australia, Japan and Korea. But the real breakthrough, one that most would have thought an impossible dream one or two years ago, has come with the adoption by major developing countries of self-imposed constraints on the volume of their emissions up to 2020. Not long ago the view was that all that could be expected from developing economies was that they might reduce their emissions if they were paid to do so. And, as Howes points out, this is supported by a literal interpretation of the UNFCCC, Article 4.3 of which guarantees developing countries that the ‘incremental costs’ of their mitigation efforts will be covered by others.

Yet China, Brazil and Indonesia have all now committed themselves to reducing their emissions – not in absolute terms, but significantly below what they would have otherwise been — and that is a huge step forward. China’s commitment is completely unconditional. It is related neither to financing nor to what other countries do. Indonesia has linked the extent of its abatement to the provision of financial support, but even it has committed to a significant minimum level of abatement, come what may.

While there is still no agreement between the major players — the United States and China — on how the international climate regime should be structured going forward, these developments provide hope for thinking that there is a way through if not perhaps this time round.

In this unclear but not entirely negative policy environment, national and domestic initiative assumes a central role, one not buttressed by international agreements and targets but encouraged by parallel commitment and initiative by other important players.

This is the context in which it makes more and more sense to build coalitions for progress — especially in Asia where on this as on so many other issues of policy the global spotlight is focused — that provide support for mutually reinforcing policy development and at the same time put pressure on peers — importantly the United States — to join in de facto international regime creation. The Asian Climate Change Forum in Canberra this week is a small but positive step in this direction.