Adil Khan Miankhel and Shahbaz Nasir in their essay this week make the point that, though the estimated damage to the Pakistani economy may run into billions of dollars, the immediate worry is delivery of relief for food, medicine and potable water for 20 million people who don’t have access to them. For the international community, altruism aside, failure to respond to these needs up front, would constitute surrender on the battleground in the struggle to win the hearts and minds and the trust of the Pakistani people. ‘With the passing of time, the battle may shift to a harder and more unforgiving battleground, consuming far more resources. A dollar spent now is likely to be equivalent to thousands spent later’.
The assessment of the economic and political effects of the floods on Pakistan, the region and the rest of the world will take longer. The floods have affected one-fifth of the country (an area roughly the size of England) and engulfed large parts of all four provinces—Punjab, Balochistan, Sindh and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (formerly the North West Frontier Province). The vast scope of the damage makes this a truly national disaster with long-term economic and political consequences. Mohsin Khan and Shuja Nawaz begin with their sobering assessment in this week’s lead essay. With waters still rising, they point out, it is still too early to assess the economic costs; a proper assessment will be made in time by the Government of Pakistan, assisted by the UN and the World Bank. But they provide a forensic analysis of what the scale of those costs might be.
‘The immediate impact on the population is truly staggering—20 million people affected with 8 million in need of water, food and shelter; 1500-2000 killed; 4 million left homeless; and 15 million displaced. The devastation has hit virtually all sectors of the economy. The Pakistan government estimates total economic damage to be near US$15 billion, or about 10 per cent of GDP. Damage to infrastructure alone (roads, power plants, telecommunications, dams and irrigation systems, and schools and health clinics) amounts to around US$10 billion.’
This, and more, is likely to turn an expected 3-4 per cent growth in GDP this year into a 2-5 per cent fall in GDP. And the shortage of food and other goods could push inflation up to 20 per cent or more. The political consequences of the floods are difficult to predict but full of deep risk, since Pakistan’s provinces are largely language-based, with different ethnic groups, and riven by tensions liable to erupt into violent conflicts.
Economic recovery from the floods will depend not on the generosity of foreign donors, Khan and Nawaz argue (although this will be important to economic recovery as well as to the politics of recovery from the crisis), but on the ability of the Pakistan government to mobilise the domestic resources and public support to undertake massive reconstruction. And it will take several years for full recovery to be achieved — a problem that will demand focused regional and global attention.
Below are links to some of the international agencies to whom donations can be made to assist victims of the floods:
Red Cross (Australian based)
Oxfam (Australian based)