That said, it is far from certain what will happen. The next six-twelve months in Japanese politics will depend on contingencies and accidents, on the decisions taken or not taken by key individuals. But I’m still willing to predict that the LDP will fail to win a majority in the next general election, that the DPJ will, if it doesn’t win an absolute majority, will still win enough seats with which to form a government. I’m less certain about whether the LDP will splinter. I’m certainly convinced that the LDP divided among seemingly irreconcilable ideological tendencies, but I’m willing to admit the possibiliy that the party’s leaders will find a way to keep the party together, despite being unclear about the tools LDP leaders have at their disposal to keep dissatisfied members in the fold.
Various LDP bosses have publicly chastized Watanabe Yoshimi and other young turks for their “anti-Aso” activities, but I don’t know what pressure is being applied in private. I’m guessing that there is little the party can do to stop Mr. Watanabe, a second-generation politician who has won his four terms in Tochigi’s third district by sizeable margins and enjoys a certain prominence. But what the LDP can do is lean on the other young turks who might otherwise follow Mr. Watanabe in opposing and possibly leaving the LDP (Yamauchi Koichi, a first-term member from Kanagawa-9, is desperate in this post to make clear that Nakagawa Hidenao’s new study group is not aimed as undermining Mr. Aso). It is unclear whether Mr. Nakagawa is willing to cut his ties with the LDP. Sankei suggests that the Machimura faction is working to contain Mr. Nakagawa; Abe Shinzo’s participation in Mr. Nakagawa’s study group on social policy is conspicuous in this regard. The group had fifty-seven membersattend its inaugural meeting, but it is far from clear how many of those members are contemplating rebellion or whether their leader is prepared to support an effort to overthrow the government. He is stillcriticizing Mr. Aso — he criticized the prime minister’s handling of the tax reform debate on a radio program Friday — and desires an election sooner rather than later, but he is giving few hints as to whether he’d be willing to back a break with the LDP.
It may take an election to break the LDP. Depending on the balance of power within the LDP post-election, certain blocs could be convinced to split should the LDP fall short of the majority while a certain bloc strengthens its hold. I imagine that Mr. Nakagawa hopes that his group of reformists will be left standing after an election, giving them the upper hand in a power struggle.
Given the LDP’s divisions, can the LDP possibly save itself at the ballot box?
History is not in the LDP’s favor. The LDP has failed to win majorities in every election under the new single-member district/proportional representation system but for the idiosyncratic 2005 election. It is nearly universally acknowledged that the LDP and Komeito will lose the supermajority they won in 2005. The question, then, is how far the LDP will fall. It is reasonable to surmise that the LDP will win no more than what it won in 2000 (233 seats) or 2003 (237 seats). It could conceivably do worse, as a result of widespread dissatisfaction throughout Japan over how the LDP has governed since the 2005 election.
As far as I’m concerned, the important question is whether the DPJ will come close enough to an absolute majority that it will have no trouble forming a government.
It’s possible that I’m wrong. Like a good social scientist, I’m willing to accept the possibility that I’m mistaken, that my assumptions are faulty. In fact, my theory can be easily falsified: if the LDP remains in power after the next election and (presumably) remains united, I’ve clearly missed something, at which point it will be necessary to figure out precisely what was missing. In the meantime, as I — along with others, like MTC — have postulated, all signs point to the LDP’s facing a reckoning at the next general election.
I’m waiting for someone who believes that the LDP will recover to tell me, in advance, what I’m missing. What will serve to keep the LDP in power? Will rural voters ultimately be unable to vote for the DPJ in a general election? Will the LDP’s reformist candidates survive in urban districts that are trending back in the DPJ’s favor? Will Mr. Ozawa repel a sufficient number of voters to save the LDP (as the LDP hopes)? Is there anyone out there who is convinced that the LDP will survive who can venture a causal explanation for how it will save itself, other than “it has done so in the past, and it will do so again?”
I’m not even convinced that the LDP has saved itself in the past so much as it has been lucky in its opponents. Its luck may have run out. It’s amazing how that as the Aso government’s support has plummeted, there are fewer stories about the divisions within the DPJ in the media. Nothing like the prospect of success to quiet discontent in the ranks.
Speaking of predictions, the destruction of the Machimura faction is proceeding apace.
Before the LDP’s September election, I asked whether anyone thinks that “the Machimura faction, that 89-member monster of a faction that sits at the intersection of the LDP’s divisions between ‘neo-liberal’ reformers, party leaders, and ideological conservatives, will survive this party election.”
Events appear to confirm that the Machimura faction is on its last legs, if it is not already dead.
Yomiuri reports that in connection with Nakagawa Hidenao’s perceived “anti-Aso” efforts, the rift between Mr. Nakagawa and party and faction elders Mori Yoshiro and Machimura Nobutaka — already pronounced before Aso Taro’s ascendance — has widened. Mr. Machimura, along with fellow faction member Abe Shinzo, has emerged as a prominent critic of the prime minister’s critics, including Mr. Nakagawa.
Is it reasonable to speak of the Machimura faction as a single faction? Is membership in the faction the most meaningful affiliation for its members, as opposed to membership in study groups and other organizations?
How long before the faction officially splinters? And if the Machimura faction cannot hold, can the LDP, of which the Machimura faction is a microcosm, endure?