The DPJ’s “Okinawa vision” paper — discussed in this post — strongly suggests that should the DPJ take power, it will seek to revise the 2006 agreement.
The extent of the delay will depend on the makeup of President-elect Obama’s Asia policy team. If the bulk of Asia policy positions go to China or Korea hands, I would suggest that the outlook for realignment is grim indeed. Realignment will proceed smoothly only if the foreign policy team is seeded with individuals intimately familiar with the issues at stake and capable of making the case for why it is essential that the realignment must proceed as soon as possible. (And, I hope, be willing to consider doing it unilaterally if Japan drags its feet.)
But even with the right people in place the outlook isn’t good for Guam. In the current environment, it will be hard to get the necessary support from Congress and the upper levels of the administration.
Japan may have to accept that the Marines may be in Okinawa for longer than expected.