Obviously, the first problem with this article is that it is all based on the Kaifang, whose major argument is based on an article in the People’s Daily. Rather than using the source (the oblique criticism in People’s Daily), Sheridan has instead pinched the argument holus bolus from Kaifang. By the time you have finished this game of Chinese whispers, what was actually written in the first place becomes obscured.

This probably explains why it seems so incorrect. Apparently, the public sign that Wen is on the nose is that the land reforms did not go through as expected. What “land reforms” didn’t go through? Which part?

Moreover, I find it curious that the same people pushing the land reforms were the People’s Daily – this would be the same People’s Daily whose editorial pages are simultaneously using their space to allow Chen Kuiyang to pressure Wen.

This coincides with a number of People’s Daily editorials proclaiming the need for a higher living wage for farmers, to be achieved through higher government purchase prices for wheat. This reform, recently instituted, is of course of exactly the loose “left” persuasion that Wen has been most strongly identified with. In other words, this reform has his fingerprints all over it. You don’t let a man about to get the axe take credit for a big reform.

Which leads to probably the strongest reason that this article doesn’t wash. The CCP aren’t going to chop Wen now, as he has a whole bunch of “public apologies” promised if many of the rural reforms enacted in the past few years don’t work as planned. If he is going to be made a scapegoat, it will be after the “public apology” sessions. In the meantime, he is far too useful in the media. Like Paris Hilton, you’re never sure what he is exactly doing there, but he is always on the front page of the paper.

Given this, the belief that Hu Jintao would be happy to jettison his prime minister because it would alter the balance of power between factions and fortify his own position may be worth examining. According to nameless “political analysts” Li Keqiang, the colourless vice-premier, would step up if Wen was forced out.

One part of this makes sense: the graduation of Li Keqiang to the post would indeed mollify the Shanghai clique, somewhat quiescent since the arrest of Chen Liangyu. This would free up Xi Jinpeng to take up Hu’s post and allow him to elevate another cadre loyal to him up the ladder.

Yet, again, this doesn’t quite square. Why use Chen Kuiyang to lead the attacks on Wen? Why use someone so closely tied to the Shanghai clique to enact criticism which leaves another Shanghai clique member as the primary beneficiary?

Given the general opacity and difficulty predicting Chinese politics, clearly it will still pay to watch this space. But I expect to see Grandpa Wen gracing CCTV for a fair while longer yet…