If credible, the Agreement could be cost effective in instilling law and order and insuring against coups in the region. Australia, as the largest and richest member of this Forum, would have a pivotal role in this initiative. A credible multilateral commitment to restoring law and order if and when it breaks down in any member state could be enough to deter civil disruptions in the first place. Australian backing to such a commitment and her willingness to lead a mission should the need arise, is critical for this strategy to deliver on its intent. The long-term strategy is that of creating the conditions for voluntary compliance with the laws of the state by the majority of her citizens. The incentives for such compliance has to be founded in the belief that the rewards of complying with the rules and regulations of society, even without the threat of punishments by outsiders, far outweigh the costs of doing anything less. This requires raising the prospects of development for the region such that the incentives are for value-adding effort rather than those for predation.

If economies grow sufficiently to absorb those requiring work and be in a position to provide opportunities for sustainable livelihoods for the majority, then prosperity would be the girder on which peace and stability could rest. Furthermore, a sufficiently large tax base would allow the nation state to control criminals with its own resources. While under-writing law and order in the individual states will lower the risk premiums for private investors, the increased investment will be realised only after investors are convinced that the commitment will withstand the test of time. Thus, the rise in growth of income and jobs from an assurance that law and order will prevail can only be a long-term strategy. Temporary access to jobs in Australia for those in need of the above together with improved access to training and healthcare at home (as argued in (i) & (ii) above) has the potential to ‘jump-start’ the process of job creation and growth of production.