Garnaut understood the significance of China’s economic growth for the world’s economy earlier than most people. Australian’s will remember hearing a lot about the resources boom during the 2007 election; this allowed Rudd to dissolve Howard’s central claim to legitimacy – after all, with China’s demand for resources, anyone could have delivered 11 years of consistent economic growth. 2006/2007 was when most people began to become aware of China’s global economic significance.

Garnaut is largely to thank for Australia’s awareness of the importance of the Chinese led resources boom to Australia’s economy. [see here (pdf)]

Garnaut has an unique ability to grasp the key features of the global economy. He understands China’s economy in particular. He understands that India will likely follow suit. And he understands that the (largely coal based) structure of these two economies mean that as we rapidly increase our economic activity (and our population), we will be increasing, not decreasing our environmental impact per dollar per person.

It is Garnaut’s understanding of the key drivers of the global economy – not the US financial system, but China and India’s industrialisation – that define his perspective. The world economy will grow. Quickly. And increasingly dirtily.

This assumption underpins his thinking when he writes in Chapter 4 (paraphrased):

The high-end scenarios (projecting carbon emissions growth at 2.5per cent to 2030) have often been dismissed as extreme or unrealistic. However the Platinum Age projections assume emissions growth at 3.1per cent to 2030.

(See Figure 4.8 – click to enlarge)

So Paul Dibb is correct in one sense: Garnaut’s projections are at the more calamitous end of the spectrum of projections. However since most projections fail to appreciate the importance of China and India, we should consider Garnaut’s projections at the more realistic end. The others are wildly naive in their optimism.