Third, it ignores the careful analysis in the Garnaut Review that changes the frame of reference on emissions targets to a per capita basis. The move to emissions rights allocated on an equal per capita basis is the most sensible way forward and the best way to reach a deal that brings developing countries in. The simple arithmetic, as the Review makes clear, is that a 10 per cent absolute reduction in Australia’s annual GHG emissions is the equivalent of 30 per cent per capita reduction once population growth and migration are accounted for. The report is pretty clear on this:
…Australia’s ongoing strong immigration and population growth means that it will be easier to cut emissions in per capita rather than absolute terms. Australia’s population growth rate is above the world average. The Garnaut–Treasury reference case suggests that Australia’s population will increase proportionately by almost three times global population through this century. If emissions entitlements and targets are framed in per capita terms, countries with growing populations will receive greater absolute allocations. Population growth considerations are centrally important to equitable distribution of the adjustment burden among Australia and other developed countries. (p.205)
The 30 per cent per capita annual emission reduction that the Review says Australia should announce it will commit to in the case of a global deal of 550 ppm is higher than that to which the EU has committed.
The focus on the figure of 10 per cent ignores the fact that the reference point is 2000 levels, not 2008 levels, does not take into account population growth or migration, disregards that this contraction and convergence plan would be consistent with 2050 targets of 80 percent overall or 90 percent per capita, and discounts future opportunities to achieve stronger international agreements once initial targets are achieved.
The analysis in the report is based on what is realistically achievable globally, the reality of the political sell at home, and what is most likely to achieve desired emissions and climate change outcomes.