On Afghanistan, improving stability will remain an important foreign policy and security agenda item for the next administration. Japan, however, is unable to send troops to the troubled country. Donor countries have already pledged US$20 billion in aid to Afghanistan. Given that many of the countries providing troops there are suffering from the financial crisis, Japan may well face a request for further economic assistance.
Such a development could result in a deeper sense of abandonment among the Japanese over America’s North Korea policy on the one hand, and heightened fear that they have become ‘entrapped’ in America’s global strategy on the other. This is certainly a crisis for the Japan-US alliance. It is symbolic that Junichiro Koizumi, the former prime minister who oversaw the ‘golden age’ of the alliance, recently made an abrupt announcement that he would retire from politics.
It has been a long time since crisis management of the Japan-US alliance first came up in discussions among the policymakers of both countries. The way Washington notified Japan of the delisting of North Korea made me want to ask the Americans once again to pay more attention to the sensitivity of alliance diplomacy. Meanwhile, both countries will have to manage their expectations of the alliance. America’s ‘sticks and carrots’ alone will not be sufficient to make Pyongyang abandon its nuclear programs and release the Japanese citizens it abducted. Japan must seriously consider what it can do through its own diplomatic efforts rather than seek salvation from others. There is no clear consensus among the Japanese on how to resolve the abduction issue yet.
Japan has made UN-centered diplomacy one of the pillars of its foreign policy. However, the number of Self-Defense Force personnel currently working for UN peacekeeping operations remains at 36. This stands no comparison with China’s four-digit figure. In addition, Japan’s budget for official development assistance (ODA) has been continuously declining. How can Japan expect to compete with China on the international stage and be granted a permanent seat on the UN Security Council?
An effective alliance presupposes self-help among the allies. In this sense, the next half-year or so – a period during which both Tokyo and Washington will face major political changes – will present a perfect opportunity for Japan to re-examine how to manage a crisis in the alliance (crisis management) as well as to restrain excessive expectations for the alliance (expectation management)
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See also:
Japan assesses the next US presidency
Obama and Asia
What Obama means for Asia
Keeping up with Asia
More on Japan, America and the bomb
China, Japanese security and the bomb!
Obama and Japan’s security policies