But Mr. Aso has finally climbed to the top of the greasy pole.

For a look at how he went from defeated party presidential candidate to prohibitive favorite to succeed Mr. Fukuda, see this post, this article at the website of the Far Eastern Economic Review, and this post on Mori Yoshiro’s endorsement of Mr. Aso.

There will be lots of talk in the coming days about Mr. Aso’s conservatism. While undoubtedly true, it is not the most important factor in understanding how the coming months will play out. Mr. Aso’s popularity is undeniable. The voting public may be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, and certainly won’t hold his conservatism against him should he find the right way to deliver the message that under his leadership the government will be more responsive to people’s hardships than under his predecessors or the DPJ. It’s possible that enough voters will buy that message and return the LDP with a slim majority. While a slim majority will not “untwist” the Diet, Mr. Aso would use his popular appeal to claim it as a mandate and appeal directly to the public over the heads of “opposition forces” in the LDP and the opposition camp, a la Koizumi Junichiro.

Whether he has the deftness to pull off such a feat is one question; whether the circumstances will permit it is another. I’m dubious about the possibility of the LDP’s riding out the chaos under the leadership of Mr. Aso. I think the LDP has exhausted its line of credit with the public, and will find itself cut off at election time. The public may be ready to resolve the divided Diet by delivering the lower house to the DPJ.

Expect that the first task for Mr. Aso will be buying time, trying to make the case that an election does not need to be held immediately — perhaps an argument like the government cannot afford to be distracted by an election when the economy is faltering and when urgent action is needed to address the insecurities of the people.